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New analysis by Primara Research reveals Australia's hidden property opportunities within major cities as retirees relocate, creating less competitive markets for family home buyers.
Australia's aging population has created an unprecedented challenge for family home buyers, with the over-65 population surging 16.6% over five years. These mostly cashed-up retirees, many benefiting from decades of property growth, have dominated housing markets nationwide.
However, new analysis has identified specific city areas where this trend is reversing, creating unique opportunities for families to secure homes without the intense bidding wars that have characterised Australia's property market.
The analysis identifies the top 5 areas in each capital city with populations above 1,000, focusing on areas with houses available rather than inner-city apartment living.
Despite the growing tree change trend, 68% of Australians still live in capital cities, and most working families remain tied to major metropolitan areas due to employment commitments. This makes finding hidden gems within city areas vital for families seeking affordable housing options without sacrificing career prospects or urban amenities.
The research reveals that while Australia's retirement population continues to grow nationally, certain pockets within major cities are experiencing significant declines in their over-65 populations as retirees downsize, relocate to retirement communities, or move to regional lifestyle destinations.
Queensland Shows Strongest Retirement Outflow Despite Overall Growth
Brisbane presents the most compelling opportunity for family buyers, with 27 of 237 areas showing declining over-65 populations despite the city's overall retirement growth being among the nation's highest.
Top 5 Brisbane areas with declining over-65 populations:
Area | Location (from city centre) | 1 Year Change | 5 Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Holland Park West | 8km southeast | -4.0% | -9.5% |
2 | Geebung | 11km north | -3.3% | 0.8% |
3 | Salisbury & Nathan | 9-10km south | -2.7% | -4.1% |
4 | Keperra | 10km northwest | -2.2% | -5.7% |
5 | Carseldine | 13-14km north | -2.2% | -5.9% |
Holland Park West leads with a sustained decline across both timeframes, offering inner-south proximity with established trends. The southern corridor shows particular promise with multiple declining areas, while northern suburbs like Geebung represent emerging opportunities where families can get ahead of new trends.
Sydney's Selective Exodus Creates Premium Opportunities
Despite Sydney's notorious housing competition, certain areas show declining over-65 populations, offering hope for family buyers in Australia's most expensive market.
Top 5 Sydney areas with declining over-65 populations:
Area | Location (from city centre) | 1 Year Change | 5 Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Glenfield | 36 km southwest | -3.9% | -5.6% |
2 | Belrose | 19 km northeast | -3.1% | -7.6% |
3 | Wyoming (Central Coast) | 76 km north | -2.4% | -3.2% |
4 | Kingsford | 7 km southeast | -2.2% | -4.7% |
5 | Kincumber (Central Coast) | 86 km north-northeast | -2.2% | 3.6% |
Glenfield's consistent decline makes it attractive for southwest corridor families, while Belrose represents premium northern beaches opportunity with sustained retiree outflow. The Central Coast emerges as a strategic option for families willing to commute but stay within the greater Sydney region, with inner-ring Kingsford offering proximity advantages.
Melbourne's Surprising Pockets of Opportunity
Melbourne's over-65 growth sits just under the national average at 3%, but specific areas show dramatic long term declines creating family-friendly buying opportunities.
Top 5 Melbourne areas with declining over-65 populations:
Area | Location (from city centre) | 1 Year Change | 5 Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Clayton Central | 19 km southeast | -2.2% | -14.6% |
2 | Altona North | 12km southwest | -1.7% | -9.8% |
3 | Mornington East | 57 km southeast | -1.5% | -3.3% |
4 | Glenroy East & West | north-northwest | -1.4% | -9.1% |
5 | Parkville | 3km northwest | 0.0% | -23.6% |
Clayton Central leads with Melbourne's most dramatic current decline at 2.2% this year, building on a substantial 14.6% five-year trend. While Parkville shows an even steeper 23.6% five-year decline, its flat growth this year suggests the trend may be stabilizing. Western suburbs show fresh opportunities with Altona North, while northern Glenroy areas offer middle-ring alternatives. Mornington East provides peninsula lifestyle options with established infrastructure.
Perth's Concentrated Opportunity
Perth shows concentrated opportunity, with significant overall retiree growth (21.3% over five years) making current declines particularly noteworthy for strategic family buyers.
Top 5 Perth areas with declining over-65 populations:
Area | Location (from city centre) | 1 Year Change | 5 Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bentley, Wilson & St James | 7-10 km southeast | -4.2% | -5.9% |
2 | Willagee | 12 km south-southwest | -3.0% | 7.5% |
3 | Yokine, Coolbinia & Menora | 3-6 km north | -1.3% | 6.5% |
4 | Bull Creek | 11-12 km south | -1.2% | 3.2% |
5 | Wembley, West Leederville & Glendalough | 3-6 km northwest | -1.1% | 7.2% |
Bentley-Wilson-St James leads with consistent decline across both timeframes, offering established south-eastern suburbs with good transport connections. The close-to-city areas of Yokine, Coolbinia & Menora and Wembley, West Leederville & Glendalough represent premium opportunities near Perth's centre, while southern locations like Willagee and Bull Creek provide different lifestyle options with family-friendly amenities.
Adelaide's Emerging Opportunities
Adelaide presents the most challenging market for this strategy, with only 5 of 105 areas showing any decline over five years, making current movements particularly significant for early-moving families.
Top 5 Adelaide areas with current over-65 declines:
Area | Location (from city centre) | 1 Year Change | 5 Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Belair | 10 km south | -1.8% | 5.6% |
2 | Ingle Farm | 12 km north-northeast | -1.5% | -1.4% |
3 | North Adelaide | 1-2 km north | -1.2% | -0.1% |
4 | Hahndorf & Echunga | 22 km southeast | -0.8% | 5.4% |
5 | Hope Valley & Modbury | 11 km northeast | -0.7% | -0.1% |
Belair's hills location represents Adelaide's strongest current decline, while Ingle Farm provides consistent northern suburbs opportunity. North Adelaide offers rare inner-city potential, with Adelaide Hills locations experiencing demographic shifts despite traditional retiree appeal.
Hobart's Modest Growth Masks Strategic Opportunities
Hobart shows modest overall over-65 growth at 2.6%, and specific areas are experiencing notable declines as retirees relocate, creating targeted opportunities for family buyers in Tasmania's capital.
Top 5 Hobart areas with declining over-65 populations:
Area | Location (from city centre) | 1 Year Change | 5 Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mornington & Warrane | 5-7 km east | -6.1% | -9.4% |
2 | Derwent Park & Lutana | 4-7 km north | -2.5% | 2.7% |
3 | Montrose & Rosetta | 8-10 km northwest | -1.1% | -1.6% |
4 | Lindisfarne & Rose Bay | 4-5 km northeast | 0.1% | -0.4% |
5 | Glenorchy | 7-8 km northwest | 0.2% | -4.6% |
Mornington & Warrane lead with significant declines across both timeframes on the eastern shore. Northern areas like Derwent Park & Lutana show emerging trends, while established suburbs like Glenorchy demonstrate sustained demographic shifts creating family opportunities.
Canberra's Southern Shift
Despite being a government town with typically stable demographics, Canberra shows significant year-on-year declines in specific areas, particularly in the southern suburbs.
Top 5 Canberra areas with declining over-65 populations:
Area | Location (from city centre) | 1 Year Change | 5 Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hughes | 7km south-southwest | -4.9% | -12.0% |
2 | Farrer | 10km south-southwest | -4.4% | 8.6% |
3 | Pearce | 9km south-southwest | -2.5% | -2.5% |
4 | Weston | 10km southwest | -2.2% | -3.1% |
5 | Duffy | 11km west-southwest | -1.7% | 1.5% |
Hughes leads with dramatic decline across both timeframes, while Farrer shows an interesting reversal from five-year growth to current decline. Canberra's unique dynamic is reflective of a population where many residents relocate upon retirement, having originally moved to the capital for career opportunities rather than lifestyle preferences.
Darwin's Explosive Growth Creates Isolated Opportunities
Darwin presents the most dramatic contrast of any Australian capital, with overall over-65 growth of 25% over five years making the few declining areas particularly significant.
Top 3 Darwin areas with declining over-65 populations:
Area | Location (from city centre) | 1 Year Change | 5 Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Palmerston North | 16-18 km southeast | -5.1% | -1.6% |
2 | Brinkin & Nakara | 12km north-northeast | -1.6% | 8.3% |
3 | Tiwi | 12km northeast | -1.2% | 3.2% |
Palmerston North's 5.1% current decline represents a genuine anomaly against the city's explosive retiree growth. As Darwin's satellite city, Palmerston operates with different demographic patterns, making this decline particularly noteworthy for families seeking alternatives to Darwin's central areas.
The Strategic Advantage for Family Buyers
The data suggests families should prioritise:
Areas showing current-year declines of 2% or more in over-65 populations
Locations where recent changes contrast with historical patterns
Suburbs with good infrastructure despite emerging demographic shifts
Areas within commutable distances where new trends are just beginning
